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美国连线网站发布中国大运卫星照片

Satellites Spot China’s Mysterious New Warplane
BY DAVID AXE01.04.136:38 PM
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The Y-20 at Yanliang on Jan. 1. Photo: GeoEye GeoEye 1
A week after the publication of blurry photographs depicting what appears to be China’s first long-range jet transport, Danger Room has obtained satellite imagery of the new plane at an airfield in central China.

The images, acquired by the GeoEye 1 and IKONOS spacecraft — both belonging to commercial satellite operator GeoEye headquartered in Washington, D.C. — corroborate the general layout of the Xian Aircraft Corporation Y-20, the existence of which has been confirmed by Beijing. They also underscore the emerging consensus among Western experts that the Y-20, while outwardly impressive, could lack the performance of even much older American, Russian and European transports.

The IKONOS image (below) is dated Dec. 25. It shows the Y-20 outside a large hangar at Yanliang airfield, home of the People’s Liberation Army Air Force’s test establishment. The base is crowded with examples of the PLAAF’s other main transports, including Y-8 medium airlifters and, apparently, tanker versions of the aged H-6 bomber — both types of which could in theory be replaced by the Y-20, ostensibly giving China the same global military reach the U.S. and other advanced nations have enjoyed for half a century.

The GeoEye 1 photo from Jan. 1 (above) depicts the new transport, which isn’t known to have flown yet, on one of Yanliang’s runways, surrounded by people and vehicles. News reports have claimed the Y-20 is currently undergoing runway taxi tests in preparation for its eventual first flight.


Y-20 at Yanliang on Dec. 25. Photo: GeoEye IKONOS
But even after that happens, the Y-20 will probably need lots of work. Indeed, when it comes to jet-transport technology Beijing is “falling behind, not catching up,” John Pike, an analyst with the Virginia-based Globalstrategy.org, writes in an e-mail to Danger Room.

Specifically, the Y-20 needs new engines — and there’s little evidence that Beijing is making much progress on that front. The prototype is reportedly fitted with old, Russian-made D-30 engines that probably aren’t adequate for the Y-20′s design.

The new imagery is sharper, more detailed and shot from a higher angle than the grainy first photos of the Y-20 that appeared on Chinese internet forums in late December, providing a much more reliable basis for assessing the transport’s layout. Apparently slightly smaller than the U.S. Air Force’s workhorse C-17, the Y-20 sports the same wide swept wing and T-shaped tail as the Boeing-made C-17, blueprints of which China obtained several years ago through a spy working for the Chicago-based plane manufacturer.

“In order to get the kind of range/payload capabilities you need to use this type of plane, it all comes down to the engines,” Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with Virginia market forecaster The Teal Group, emails Danger Room. “Designing a large, high-bypass turbofan is even harder than designing a combat engine [for jet fighters],” Aboulafia adds. “China shows no signs of being able to do that.”

There are only four companies in the world capable of building the kind of engines the Y-20 needs, Aboulafia says: three — GE/CFM, Rolls Royce and Pratt & Whitney — are Western companies and one is Russian. Arms controls in the West make it unlikely that Beijing will be able to source the Y-20′s motors from the former firms.

“In short, there are three possible explanations,” Aboulafia continues. ”One, this is just a prototype, or series of prototypes. Two, it will be built in series production, using a domestically-built knockoff engine that will result in a very short-range plane with a light payload. Three, they’ll do a deal with the Russians to start importing engines that can turn this into a Chinese copy of a former Soviet transport design.”

But even a copy of an older Soviet transport would likely feature only modest performance compared to more modern, unique designs. Moreover, Russia has been reluctant lately to sell engines to China, justifiably fearing that Beijing’s engineers will illegally reverse-engineer the motors.

All of which means the Y-20, so far, is more show than substance — an intriguing subject for internet forums and passing satellites, but not yet a threat to the transportation dominance of the U.S., Russia and Europe.
[url]http://www.wired.com/dangerroom/2013/01/chinas-new-transport/[/url]
[img]http://img.cjdby.com/data/attachment/forum/201301/05/083750r32b342ki4ix2ixq.jpg.thumb.jpg[/img]
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对比下跑道以及周边其它飞机，就知道这玩意个头不小。中国军队和军迷们盼了多少年的东东，千呼万唤始出来，不过这种曝光方式实在是不懂得宣传自己。每次都这样，成飞四代，沈飞四代，以及那些军舰，都是从很不清晰的图片开始流出，慢慢到高清，简直就是那些电影大片的翻版。天上那么多卫星，地上那么多单反手机，既然出来了就光明正大宣布好了。有好东西也遮遮掩掩就怕别人晓得。实际效果呢，只能瞒瞒国内的百姓，让很多普通人还以为现在中国军备和日本韩国之流存在代差。

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最关键的发动机还是买国外的,哎,不能百分百的自产.

是呀光有个飞机外形发动机是不是自己造的呀

这个个头也敢叫大运，比运八大了多少？和C5A根本没法比么

按我国之前说的可以运送99a坦克的说法
至少60吨！

比伊尔76大，比美国的C-17小（77吨！）

虽然发动机不是国产的，但是我们已经在大型运输机的发展上取得了极大的成果。总有一天我们的大运会有我们自己国产的“心脏”的。我相信这一天不会遥远。

中国现在也是大力发展自己的武器，不像印度就是买，那样永远成不了军事强国。

卫星照片很清晰，连人都看得很清楚，也衬托出飞机很大，看到这样的成就，感到很高兴呀。

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运20的几个问题不容忽视，一是发动机能否国产化，而是其垂尾为什么震动那么厉害啊。。。